A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
