🔗 Share this article A Forecasting Platform User Made $Nearly Half a Million from Bets Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. An individual made nearly half a million dollars from wagers on the downfall of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was publicly declared, raising questions about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the US operation. Market Movement in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be out of power by the month's conclusion rose in the time leading up to President Donald Trump announced on January 3rd that the president had been apprehended. One account, which became a member recently and took four positions, all on Venezuela, earned over $nearly half a million from a initial bet of $32,537. The identity is unknown. The user had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Platform data shows that traders assessed the probability of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. But the market's assessment had increased to over 10% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the early hours of the next day, indicating a rapid movement in market sentiment just before the official statement was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a bet based on inside information," commented an industry expert. A handful of other platform users also earned significant sums from bets on the same outcome. Legal Questions Intensifies Elected officials are beginning to pay attention. Proposed legislation introduced on Monday seeks to ban federal workers from participating on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a bet. Market Background Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in the United States, with traders able to bet on everything from elections to politics. This sector faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. However it has experienced less resistance during the present political climate. Trading on insider information is against the law in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the prediction market industry. A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."